Worth Township, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

229
FXUS63 KDTX 251044
AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
644 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chance (20-40%) for isolated to scattered showers for all of SE MI
today.
- Slight chance (20%) for an isolated to scattered shower across the
Tri-Cities and Thumb tomorrow evening.
- Extended period of dry weather and sunshine this weekend into at
least early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Moist ambient air mass underneath slightly stable layer between 1.0
and 6.0 kft has led to prevailing IFR stratus over many areas this
morning. Structure of the environmental lapse rates with some signs
of stratus lifting suggests a fairly quick transition to MVFR. VFR
conditions later today with a slight chance of a light shower
between 18-01Z. A very low chance for a rumble of thunder and will
leave out of the forecast. Some question on how long cloud can hold
on this evening, although the RAP soundings are decidedly more dry.
Did go with some stratus redeveloping after 08z across the south
with some light br potential north. Low confidence.
For DTW/D21 Convection...Any convection across the airspace Thurs
afternoon will be isolated.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* High in ceilings aob 5000 feet today.
* Low in thunderstorms Thursday afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
DISCUSSION...
A closed low system over the Great Lakes will depart open up and
depart eastward through the afternoon and evening hours. The weaker
surface low over Lake Erie will maintain cyclonic flow across SE MI
through the day. This pattern supports isolated to widely scattered
showers favored in the late afternoon the evening hours as low-level
lapse rates steepen with diurnal heating. Weak capping through 10-
12kft will limit convective potential, precluding any organized or
robust convective development. Likewise, this setup favors the
ongoing maintenance of an extensive low stratus deck through the
first half of the day until better boundary layer mixing can work to
erode some cloud cover. Increasing subsidence and loss of daytime
heating will continue to degrade cloud cover tonight into early
tomorrow morning. Any extended period of clear skies will bring
potential for fog development, but confidence is low regarding
materializing and extent at this time. Have included patchy fog
wording in the forecast package.
A pattern shift will then commence tomorrow that will bring an
extended period of mostly dry weather and some extended periods of
sunshine that will hold through at least the midweek period. A
pseudo omega block pattern will amplify ridging across the Plains
this weekend. One of the lows near the four corners region will
weaken through early next week but longwave amplification of the
trough across the Pacific in conjunction with tropical activity over
the western Atlantic will strengthen this ridge well into the
Canadian Provinces and eventually into the Midwest/Great Lakes
region. EPS guidance shows a 95-100 percent probability of heights
reaching or exceeding the 90th percentile showcasing the very strong
convergence within ensemble guidance. Prior to the enhanced ridging,
the one day that will be susceptible to some rain showers outside of
today will be tomorrow evening into early Saturday morning focused
across the Tri-Cities and Thumb, along an elevated frontal boundary.
Temperature highs gradually increase day-to-day with highs in the low
80s expected by the weekend. Overnight lows hold in the low to mid
50s.
MARINE...
Upper low that has lingered over the region this week begins to
gradually shift east over the course of today. Shower and embedded
thunderstorm coverage are spottier today relative to prior days with
drier conditions developing by late evening as the low fully peels
away. Winds generally remain on the lighter side, aob 15kts, out of
the north today before further weakening overnight as weak high
pressure begins to expand into the Great Lakes. A weak cold front on
the preceding the edge of the high offers a low chance to see a few
spotty showers Friday morning-afternoon, otherwise quiet marine
weather takes holds for the weekend.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......KDK
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

NWS DTX Office Area Forecast Discussion