Wright, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

021
FXUS63 KDDC 131018
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
518 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain and storms likely thus afternoon and tonight
- Marginal Risk for severe weather Sunday
- Seasonable temperatures and rain chances next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Upper-air observations from yesterday evening and latest
mesoanalysis shows 500 mb trough centered over eastern Nevada
and western Utah, with flow stretching all the way to the
U.S./Mexico border. Its southwest mid-level flow has just begun
impinging on the High Plains and western Kansas this morning.
This feature will be the major playmaker in sensible weather
this weekend across the forecast area, bringing chances for
storms both days.
Today, with the approaching trough and weak surface cold front,
expecting thunderstorm chances to increase later this
afternoon, mainly after 2PM, first developing in western zones.
Overall environment continues to only be modest for severe storm
activity with MLCAPE generally less than 1,000 J/kg. Any chance
at isolated severe storms will mainly be along and near the
KS/CO border, where a Marginal Risk is being highlighted by SPC.
Only 5% probabilities for hail and damaging winds exist.
Locally heavy rainfall could accompany storms into the evening
given high PWAT values, though storms should be progressive
enough to limit the overall excessive rainfall risk. WPC has
reduced the excessive rainfall outlook to a Marginal Risk as a
result, mentioning only isolated areas of water issues.
Sunday, trends have indicated a slower progression of the
aforementioned trough and cold front. As such, thunderstorm
chances could increase into the afternoon and evening across a
large portions of the forecast area. Environment could become a
bit more favorable for stronger storm activity. CAMs indicate
cooling temperatures aloft, notably -10 to -12C 500 mb
temperatures, lending to higher instability and steeper lapse
rates. With the trough closer over western Kansas, think shear
will be better aligned as well, leading to better storm
organization. Wherever the front is ultimately situated, then
thunderstorm development is possible right along and ahead of
the front. SPC Marginal Risk is in place to highlight this
potential Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated instances of
damaging winds and hail is possible.
Looking into next week, temperatures remain steady with highs in
the low to mid 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s. Midweek storm
chances remain in the forecast, with 30-60% chance POPs Tuesday
and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 518 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Breezy conditions are expected across all terminal sites this
afternoon. Winds could gust upward to 30-35 knots at times. Into
the later part of the afternoon and evening, thunderstorms will
develop across western Kansas and track eastward out of
Colorado. Initially, storms will be isolated in nature across
far western Kansas, so the chance HYS or GCK terminals are
impacted are relatively low. However, after 00z, more
widespread rain and storms are expected, with activity
potentially impacting all terminls in some way. Heavy rainfall
is the greatest risk from these storms.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bennett
AVIATION...Bennett

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion