Yaupon Beach, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

896
FXUS62 KILM 221752
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
152 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and mainly dry weather will continue through mid week with
high pressure the dominant weather feature. Unsettled weather
is likely late this week as a cold front impacts the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will continue to loosen its grip on the region
overnight. The existing gradient will weaken and boundary layer
winds become nearly calm overnight. Return flow across the region
this afternoon will bring dew points back into the 60s. With clear
skies and increased surface moisture tonight, expect patchy fog
across the region. Some fog could be dense to start the day on
Tuesday. Lows in the lower 60s to around 60 inland. More sunshine
and warmer temperatures expected on Tuesday. Highs will climb into
the mid and upper 80s as flow aloft becomes zonal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The mid week period will feature a building mid level
ridge initially followed by subtle height falls and increasing
moisture from the southwest. For Wednesday dry conditions are
expected with highs possibly eclipsing 90 in some areas especially
inland. Similar temperatures are expected Thursday although with the
increasing convective coverage confidence is a bit lower. Lows will
continue to drift into the middle to upper 60s via the lower
dewpoints and ever increasing nights.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended period remains laden with pops at least
early on due to the mid level low dropping into the southeast. This
provides adequate to good forcing and depending on the final position
of the system to the good moisture sources...adequate to good
moisture advection. There are some indications of the system
retrograding to the southwest which leads to NVA and lower PW`s
later Saturday into Monday. Wading through all of the mid level
possibilities there appears to be a front that moves offshore that
resets temperatures down a bit more toward climatology.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
With the gradual clearing of low level clouds this afternoon, VFR
should develop across all terminals over the next few hours. Patchy
fog will be the main concern tonight with some dense fog possible
inland. Better chance of IFR restrictions inland overnight with
restrictions also possible at ILM. CRE/MYR should maintain light
winds and may see some brief mist or stratus around sunrise. VFR
should develop by mid morning for all terminals.
Extended Outlook... Early-morning low cigs/vis remain a possibility
each day. Rain chances and associated vis/cig restrictions become a
possibility from Thursday onward.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...
Northeast winds turn easterly this afternoon as
high pressure retreats to the north and east. Seas will diminish as
a result, becoming 2 to 4 feet by Tuesday morning. Light onshore
winds develop late Tuesday morning with some enhancement near the
coast in a localized sea breeze.
Tuesday Night through Saturday...
SE winds will transition to SW in time then finally
acquire a more northerly component for the weekend as a cold front
moves offshore. With a somewhat weak gradient throughout the period
no headline criteria winds and or seas are expected. Speeds will be
5-10 knots but a slightly increased range of 10-15 knots may develop
Thursday into Thursday evening briefly. Significant seas will be 2-4
feet.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides: Minor coastal flooding is possible during each high tide
early this week along the lower Cape Fear River.
Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for New
Hanover and Georgetown Counties today due to increasing
easterly swells partly associated with distant tropical cyclone
Gabrielle. An elevated rip risk for east and southeast facing
beaches will linger into midweek.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ108.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...21
MARINE...SHK/21
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion