Yaupon Beach, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

236
FXUS62 KILM 201047
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
647 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and mainly dry weather will continue through mid next
week. More unsettled weather possible late next week as a cold
front approaches.
&&
.UPDATE...
Refreshed winds and sky cover through tonight. Updated 12Z TAF
discussion below.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mainly clear skies and calm winds will support the development of at
least areas of fog early this morning, with dense fog possible in
more favorable locations (e.g., near open fields, swamps, creeks,
and rivers, as well as any locations which saw rain from a brief
shower yesterday). The question remains as to how widespread and
dense it can become before sunrise, and this will be monitored
closely as a Special Weather Statement or Dense Fog Advisory may be
required.
Otherwise, expect a near-normal start to the day with morning lows
in the middle 60s away from the immediate coast, followed by rapid
heating as any fog burns off within a couple hours of sunrise.
Abnormally warm temps aloft will support above-normal highs once
again, in the upper 80s to around 90F inland and generally middle
80s near the coast. Strong heating looks to support the development
of a thermal trough inland, and this combined with weak impulses
passing overhead should lead to at least isolated pop-up showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm, both near the coast and inland, but mainly
focused in the SC counties. High pressure well north of the area
will maintain generally light northeast winds today, which should
see an increase this evening and overnight as the gradient begins
tightening between the high and a developing coastal trough offshore.
Tonight, any shower activity should gradually dissipate with the
loss of heating, along with any daytime cumulus. However, as the
northeast flow aloft strengthens, increased low-level moisture
should arrive in the form of low clouds by late in the night, at
least in the coastal Cape Fear area. The steady winds should
preclude much, if any, fog formation. Lows in the low-mid 60s are
expected, although depending on when these low clouds arrive, low
temps in the Cape Fear area may end up on the high end of the range
if the clouds move overhead early enough in the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Below normal rain chances
*Near normal temps
Confidence:
*High
Details: No major changes from the previous forecast. Still looks
mainly dry with temps about normal for this time of year as high
pressure builds in while low pressure well offshore tracks
farther away. Highs generally in the low to mid 80s (coolest
near the coast) with lows mostly in the low to mid 60s (except
closer to 70 along the coast).
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Near to above normal temps thru Thu night; below normal temps
possible Fri
*Near to below normal rain chances thru at least Thu night; above
normal rain chances possible Fri
Confidence:
*Tue thru Thu: Moderate to High
*Thu night thru Fri: Moderate
Details: No significant changes to the mid to late week period
forecast. Still looks pretty warm and mostly dry through Wed night
with a bit better chance of rain Thu and especially Fri as upper-
level forcing likely increases due to a deepening trough to the
west, although there is still some uncertainty regarding rain
chances/amounts. Mostly above normal temps are expected until
Fri when they`ll likely fall back a bit closer to normal.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Expect any
remaining restrictions to quickly burn off within the next hour
or so. Northeast winds will continue today, with more easterly
to southeasterly winds near the coast behind the sea breeze.
While an isolated pop-up shower could impact any of the SC
terminals, confidence is too low for even a PROB30 mention, but
keep in mind that a brief MVFR to IFR vis restriction could
occur if a heavy shower passes directly over a terminal.
Otherwise, VFR will dominate today and into tonight as east-
northeast winds remain steady through tonight. Low clouds may
impact eastern terminals late tonight as a surge of northeast
winds arrives. Otherwise, elevated winds should keep the overall
mist/fog threat low, except perhaps early in the night before
winds pick up.
Extended Outlook...Moderate potential for low cigs/vsbys Monday
morning. Some potential for isolated showers returns the middle
of next week.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tonight... The pressure gradient will tighten from this
afternoon onward as a coastal trough develops while high pressure
remains north of the area. Thus, expect northeast winds to gradually
increase through the period, reaching 15-20 kts overnight. Seas
respond accordingly and increase from 1-2 ft this morning to 2-4 ft
this evening. Wind gusts look to remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria through this period.
Sunday through Wednesday...High confidence this period. Inland high
pressure and offshore low pressure will keep elevated NE winds in
place thru Sun. Could see winds/seas approach Small Craft Advisory
levels (25 kt/6 ft) but it looks pretty marginal at this time.
Expect improving conditions thereafter as the pressure gradient
weakens with low pressure moving farther away and high pressure
settling south into the area.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...RJB/ABW

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion