Yorktown, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

731
FXUS64 KLZK 241748 AAA
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1248 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
-Some flash flood threat continues into the overnight hours
-A strong/briefly severe thunderstorm remains possible overnight into
midday Wed...mainly across SRN/SERN sections
-Drier and calmer conditions expected late this week into early next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Scattered convection is continuing late this Tue evening as
SHRA/TSRA activity fires along/just behind an outflow dropping south
across central to SRN sections of the state. The primary cold front
is situated over far NWRN AR into ERN OK...which is slowly
progressing SE. Some SVR threat remains late this evening and
potentially into the overnight hrs...primarily where best overlap of
ML CAPE and bulk SHR exists over SWRN sections ahead of the initial
convection. Over time however...this instability has been weakening.
Even so...SRN/SERN sections will still see some potential for a
strong/SVR storm overnight.
The threat for heavy rainfall remains however as the convection
behind the initial convective line moves back over some areas that
have already seen very heavy rainfall recently. This activity was
becoming more widespread along/ahead of the slowly SEWD progressing
cold front across WRN sections. Eventually...the front will allow
colder/more stable air to start pushing this convection further
E/SE...but will have to pay close attention to the flash flood
threat across WRN sections...especially where very heavy rainfall
has already been seen recently.
By the daylight hrs Wed morning...the cold front will start to gain
SEWD momentum an the upper level disturbance drops SE into the
state...eventually pushing the organized convection further SE
during the daytime hrs Wed. Some strong to briefly SVR convection
may be seen ahead of the front across SERN sections early...at least
until the main surge of the front drops SE by around midday. There
may still be a heavy rain threat...especially right before the front
pushes through. However...the SRN portion of the state has remained
fairly dry relative to other areas of the state recently...so it may
take a bit more rainfall to cause some significant issues flooding
wise. May cancel the Flood Watch by sunrise Wed as well due to the
threat for widespread heavy rainfall decreasing in the watch area.
Precip chances will continue behind the front...under the main upper
shortwave that will slowly drop SE Wed into Thu...before finally
shifting east by late this week. This upper shortwave looks to break
off from the main upper flow...developing into a closed upper low to
the east of AR. With AR being on the west side of this upper
low...NRLY flow aloft will be seen over AR late this week through
the weekend. This will keep the forecast mainly dry...though temps
look to warm back above normal into the early part of next week as
an upper ridge starts moving back over the region near the end of
the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Sfc cdfrnt was analyzed fm SW to NE over the NWrn third of the
state, w/ sctd convection ongoing acrs Srn AR, and sctd precip
over the Nrn half of the state. As the frnt moves thru tonight,
NWrly winds wl ensue behind the frnt, w/ gusty SWrlies prevailing
elsewhere thru the aftn. Incrsg covg of precip/convection is
expected thru the evng, w/ deteriorating CIGs to MVFR/IFR levels.
IFR CIGs and some patchy fog is expected over Nrn terminals, while
MVFR CIGs wl prevail acrs Cntrl to SRn AR. Improving condns should
be noted fm W to E late in the PD/Thurs mrng.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     63  81  57  83 /  30  10   0   0
Camden AR         63  82  60  83 /  10  20   0   0
Harrison AR       59  76  55  78 /  20   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    63  80  59  83 /  10  20   0   0
Little Rock   AR  66  80  62  81 /  10  20   0   0
Monticello AR     67  83  62  84 /  20  20   0   0
Mount Ida AR      62  79  57  83 /   0  10   0   0
Mountain Home AR  60  79  55  81 /  20  10   0   0
Newport AR        65  80  59  81 /  40  20   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     65  81  60  82 /  10  20   0   0
Russellville AR   63  82  59  83 /  10  10   0   0
Searcy AR         64  81  59  83 /  30  20   0   0
Stuttgart AR      66  80  61  81 /  20  10   0   0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...72

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion